Section
18
A
Low and Stable Rate of Inflation
Define Inflation
|
A persistent increase in the average price level of
the economy, usually measured through the calculation of a consumer price
index
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Costs of Inflation (the reasons governments want to keep inflation
low and stable)
Loss of Purchasing Power
|
Loss of purchasing power- if the inflation rate is
higher than your rate of wage increase you will experience a loss of
purchasing power
-
People on fixed incomes or
people without COLAS built into their contracts will suffer
-
Also the role of expectations
is important because wage contracts are agreed to in advance of inflation
data
|
Effect on Savings
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If the rate of inflation is higher than your
interest rate you will experience negative savings.
-
Inflation discourages savings
though you can offset the effect on savings by purchasing assets whose value
rises faster than inflation.
|
Effect on Interest Rates
|
Effect on interest rates- high rates of inflation
cause banks to raise their nominal interest rates to avoid losing profits
from lending money.
|
Effect on international competitiveness
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A high rate of inflation causes a negative balance
of trade
-
Exports are less competitive
and unemployment in export industries may result
-
Imports from lower inflation
trading partners become attractive
|
Uncertainty
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Inflation causes reduced investment due to the fall
in available loanable funds savings, higher interest and uncertainty in the
marketplace, this negatively affects economic growth.
|
Labor Unrest
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If labor does not feel their wages are keeping up
with inflation it may cause disputes between unions and management
|
Define Deflation
|
A persistent fall in the average level of prices in
the economy
Good- results from the improvements in the supply
side of the economy and/ or increased productivity
Bad deflation- results from decreased aggregate
demand. If output reduces it is assumed that the level of unemployment will
wirse because firms will need fewer workers to produce less output
|
Good Deflation (improvements in the supply side of the economy)
Bad Deflation (source in demand side of the economy)
Disinflation
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A slower rate of growth and inflation
|
Costs of deflation
Unemployment
|
When AD is low , business are likely to lay of
workers and can lead to a deflationary spiral.
-
If prices are falling
consumers may delay purchases (deffered consumption), reduce AD and lead to
lay offs. This in turn lowers consumers confidence and process repears
|
Effect of Investment
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During deflation businesses make less profit or
experience losses causing them to lay off workers and reduced investment
|
Costs to Debtors
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Anyone who has taken a load suffers because the
value of debt rises as a result of deflation
|
How is inflation measured? CPI/RPI
Choose rep. basket of consumer goods or
services
Price of sample
Measure monthly by collectors from
retailers
Catergorized and weighted
Issues (Limitations) involved in the
measurement of inflation
Typical
Market Basket
|
Basket not applicable for all people
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Collection Errors
|
Errors in the collection of data
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Market Basket Changes Affect comparisons over time
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Differences counted by making changes in the market
basket
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International collection differences
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Different countries measure inflation in different
ways
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Un-sustained price changes
|
Price may not change for a varety of reasons that
cannot be sustained
|
Other Measures
Value
|
Only measures changes in consumer prices
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Causes of Inflation:
Demand-pull inflation
Cost-push inflation
Demand-pull and cost-push inflation
together (Inflationary spiral)
Monetarist viewpoint (Inflation due to
excess monetary growth)
Reducing Inflation (depends on type)
Reducing Demand-Pull Inflation
1.using deflationary fiscal policy:increase taxes or
reduce gov. spending
|
2.deflationary monetary policy increase the prime
interest rate, decrease the money supply
|
Problems with deflationary AD policies
1.raising taxes is unpopular
|
2.reducing gov spending impacts a variety of groups
and may result in less support for the gov.
|
3.higher interest rates hurt home owners making
mortgages more expensive
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4.governemts worried about reelection will be
reluctant to use these methods to reduce AD
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Widely accepted (best) way to reduce
demand-pull inflation:
Using monetary policy to lower AD carried
out by central but def mon. pol. Increase I lower Ms
Why?
Central bansks not politically motivated
Reducing Cost-push inflation
Supply-side policies (market-based) [Why
not interventionist?]
1.labour market reform
2.privatization
3.deregulation
4.increase competition
5.decrease corp taxes
6. decrease household taxes
Reducing inflation Monetarist Viewpoint:
The solution is to increase money supply at the same
level of growth
|
Problems facing governments:
Trade-off between different policy
objectives.
Inflation - unemployments
|
Difficulty in distinguishing the type of
inflation.
Calculating Inflation
Non-weighted/equal weighting/weighting
Inflation Rate =
Inflation-unemployment trade-off debate
The Phillips Curve
Presented by New Zealander economist:
Based on a UK study of the economy from:
Stated:
Low unemployment → firms pay
higher wages to attract labor
Unemployment
high → workers compete to obtain jobs so wages relatively low
Showed inverse relationship between rate of change of wages and
unemployment rate. The rate of change of wages could actually become negative
in times of high unemployment.
Original Phillips Curve
Concept expanded by other economist to
correlate it with inflation rate and unemployment rate using data from other
countries.
Phillips
Curve
Phillips
Curve using AD/AS analysis
Long-run
Phillips Curve